Ba’ath Brigades.pdf

President Assad is close to winning the Syrian civil war, but his security apparatus has fragmented, with Syrian loyalist militias playing important roles in policing and warfighting. The nature and loyalty of these groups are crucial for Syria's reconstruction, as they may constrain the regime's ability to rule or even challenge it. The Assad regime has always functioned through personal connections and corruption, and it is expected to continue as a "modern feudal polity" with Assad as the supreme ruler. However, the seven years of fighting may have unraveled the regime's ability to keep the country's elite together, potentially leading to a more plural security space. The brief explores the autonomy of Syrian armed groups loyal to the regime, which have been understudied due to the regime's opacity and the focus on the opposition. The groups, including the National Defence Forces (NDF), have been formalized and professionalized, with an estimated 50-60,000 members nationwide, and receive salaries and equipment from the government.