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Combining Probability With Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Assessment.pdf

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Preview of Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Assessment
🔗 Source: eprints.lse.ac.uk
📊 Size: 506 KB
👤 Author: Administrator
⬇️ Downloads: 74

Summary

Casey Helgeson, Richard Bradley, and Brian Hill propose a mathematical model to clarify the relationship between likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. The IPCC employs two metrics for communicating degree-of-certainty: confidence (qualitative, ranging from very low to very high) and probability (quantitative, conveyed through pre-defined terms). However, the relationship between these metrics has been ambiguous, leading to challenges in interpretation and consistent usage. The authors aim to resolve this ambiguity while preserving the conceptual distinction between scientific estimates of chances (likelihoods) and evaluations of the evidential basis (confidence assessments).

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Casey Helgeson, Richard Bradley, and Brian Hill propose a mathematical model to clarify the relationship between likelihood and confidence metrics used in the...

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  • File Format: PDF
  • File Size: 506 KB
  • Pages: 10
  • Language: EN
  • Author: Administrator
  • Total Downloads: 74
  • Last Updated: 2 weeks ago

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