Consensus Document.pdf

The doubling time for new infections is estimated to be around 4-6 days.
Population-wide reduction in contact rates can impact transmission, but the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions depends on adherence rates and other factors.
School closures may impact transmission, but are unlikely to reduce the final size of the epidemic or delay the peak by more than 3 weeks.
The epidemic in the UK is likely to peak within 3-5 months after sustained transmission is established, with peak timings varying by 4-6 weeks in different parts of the UK.
The infection fatality rate is estimated to be around 0.5-1%, with higher mortality rates among older adults and those requiring hospitalization.
Hospitalization rates are estimated to be around 8% of those infected, with higher rates among older adults.
The serial interval is estimated to be around 3-8 days, and the incubation period is around 5 days, with a maximum of 14 days.
Seasonality of transmission is unclear, but may be lower than other respiratory infections due to the longer serial interval.
* Real-time forecasting models and large-scale serological data are necessary for accurate understanding of the epidemic and informed decision-making.