COVID-19 Trends In Tennessee: Fall Resurgence And Policy Implications.pdf

Key Findings:

- Rising Hospitalizations: Since early October, Tennessee has witnessed a surge in reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, with some areas reaching their highest hospitalization levels yet.

- Masking Requirements: As of the report's writing, over half (54%) of Tennesseans are subject to a mask requirement, while 46% are not or only had requirements during the summer months.

- Lifting of Restrictions: By September 30, all restrictions on group gatherings and business capacity were lifted in 89 counties, accounting for 60% of the state population.

- Hospitalization Trends by Masking Requirements:
- Hospitals serving areas without masking requirements (<25%) continue to experience the highest growth rates in COVID-19 hospitalizations.
- As masking requirements increase, hospitalization growth rates flatten, indicating reduced transmission. However, masking alone is not a complete solution; recent weeks have seen rising hospitalizations across most regions of the state.

- Mobility and Consumer Spending:
- Cellular mobility data shows that economic participation ebbs and flows with community infection rates rather than solely being determined by business restrictions.
- Mobility to restaurants and bars did not significantly increase after the lifting of restrictions in late September, suggesting that community infection rates are a more influential factor on consumer spending behavior.

Implications:

- The rise in hospitalizations despite lifting of restrictions highlights the importance of community behavior changes (like masking) in mitigating COVID-19 impact on healthcare.
- Consumer spending patterns may be shifting towards safer activities rather than decreasing overall, indicating potential resilience in the economy.