Home › Categories › Business & Finance› Download

Download.pdf

930fbbb5-51b5-42df-8215-40e9ae1d442a.pdf

🔗 Source: prometheusresearch.substack.com

📊 Size: 1.2 MB

👤 Author: Mihir Gupta

⬇️ Downloads: 73

Summary

Nominal GDP slowed to 6.35% in Q1 2022, and while growth continues to slow, nominal spending exceeds the economy's output capacity, producing inflationary pressures. Policymakers must deteriorate real economic activity to contain inflation, and the current conditions are far from those required to bring inflation to 2%, forcing policymakers to continue tightening. The report highlights two big-picture paths for CPI inflation, with or without a recession, and notes that inflation will likely stay above the Fed's 2% objective without a recession. A strategy trading the 10-Year Treasury based on inflation regimes is presented, which seeks to short Treasury bonds during inflationary pressures and go long during easing cycles. The strategy has outperformed 10-Year Treasury returns with smaller drawdowns and minimal market exposure. The report also discusses the importance of addressing regime clustering in signals and the need for a sustained battle by the Fed against inflation.

Download File

Description

Nominal GDP slowed to 6.35% in Q1 2022, and while growth continues to slow, nominal spending exceeds the economy's output capacity, producing inflationary...

Technical Information

File Format: PDF
File Size: 1.2 MB
Pages: 17
Language: EN
Author: Mihir Gupta
Total Downloads: 73
Last Updated: 1 month ago

Document Overview

This PDF document about Download provides comprehensive information and guidance. Whether you're a beginner or advanced user, this resource offers valuable insights into Download.