Average.pdf

The World Bank, in collaboration with the UN, EU, and IMF, conducted a rapid Economic and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) of the Syrian conflict on Lebanon for 2012-2014. The conflict has severely impacted Lebanon's economy, cutting real GDP growth by 2.9 percentage points each year, pushing 170,000 Lebanese into poverty, and doubling the unemployment rate to above 20%. The conflict has also depressed government revenue collection by USD1.5 billion and increased government expenditure by USD1.1 billion, resulting in a total fiscal impact of USD2.6 billion. The surge in demand for public services has led to a decline in access to and quality of these services, with an estimated additional spending of USD2.5 billion required for stabilization. The conflict has particularly affected the trade sector, including goods and services trade, and the tourism sector, with sharp reductions in trade flows and a decline in international visitors. Lebanon's public finances, already structurally weak, are becoming severely strained, with the deficit estimated to widen by USD2.6 billion over 2012-2014.