Crowd Arbitration.pdf

The Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) used probabilistic forecasting tools, specifically the wisdom of the crowd, to reduce uncertainty and disagreement on the future of the US Department of Defense (DOD) and Silicon Valley relationship. Stakeholders were divided into two cohorts based on their expectations for the relationship, and their forecasts were compared to those of the crowd, comprising over 2,700 forecasts from nearly 400 forecasters. The study found that the crowd's views were closer to the "same/worse" cohort, which expects the relationship to stay the same or worsen, on metrics such as public confidence in the military, "big tech" revenue, and value of "big tech" DOD contracts. The study identified areas of disagreement between stakeholders, including the impact of a stronger US tech sector on the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship. The results suggest that probabilistic forecasting tools can help stakeholders focus on underlying points of disagreement and reduce uncertainty and disagreement in policy debates.