Federal Open Market Committee Economic Projections Summary.pdf

Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, under their individual assumptions of projected appropriate monetary policy, December 2020

Median1
Central Tendency2
Range3
2020
2021 2022 2023 Longer
run
2020
2021
2022
2023
Longer
run
2020
2021
2022
2023
Longer
run
Change in real GDP
-2.4
4.2
3.2
2.4
1.8
-2.5– -2.2
3.7–5.0
3.0–3.5
2.2–2.7
1.7–2.0
-3.3– -1.0
0.5–5.5
2.5–4.0
2.0–3.5
1.6–2.2
September projection
-3.7
4.0
3.0
2.5
1.9
-4.0– -3.0
3.6–4.7
2.5–3.3
2.4–3.0
1.7–2.0
-5.5–1.0
0.0–5.5
2.0–4.5
2.0–4.0
1.6–2.2
Unemployment rate
6.7
5.0
4.2
3.7
4.1
6.7–6.8
4.7–5.4
3.8–4.6
3.5–4.3
3.9–4.3
6.6–6.9
4.0–6.8
3.5–5.8
3.3–5.0
3.5–4.5
September projection
7.6
5.5
4.6
4.0
4.1
7.0–8.0
5.0–6.2
4.0–5.0
3.5–4.4
3.9–4.3
6.5–8.0
4.0–8.0
3.5–7.5
3.5–6.0
3.5–4.7
PCE inflation
1.2
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.2
1.7–1.9
1.8–2.0
1.9–2.1
2.0
1.1–1.4
1.2–2.3
1.5–2.2
1.7–2.2
2.0
September projection
1.2
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
1.1–1.3
1.6–1.9
1.7–1.9
1.9–2.0
2.0
1.0–1.5
1.3–2.4
1.5–2.2
1.7–2.1
2.0
Core PCE inflation4
1.4
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.4
1.7–1.8
1.8–2.0
1.9–2.1
1.3–1.5
1.5–2.3
1.6–2.2
1.7–2.2
September projection
1.5
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.3–1.5
1.6–1.8
1.7–1.9
1.9–2.0
1.2–1.6
1.5–2.4
1.6–2.2
1.7–2.1
Memo: Projected
appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
2.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1–0.4
2.3–2.5
0.1
0.1
0.1–0.4
0.1–1.1
2.0–3.0
September projection
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
2.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1–0.4
2.3–2.5
0.1
0.1
0.1–0.6
0.1–1.4
2.0–3.0
Variable
Percent
Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. The September projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on September 15–16, 2020. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the change in real GDP, the unemployment rate, or the federal funds rate in conjunction with the September 15–16, 2020, meeting, and one participant did not submit such projections in conjunction with the December 15–16, 2020, meeting.