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Should Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking?.pdf

boc-review-autumn14-mendes.pdf
Preview of Should Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking?
🔗 Source: bankofcanada.ca
📊 Size: 911 KB
👤 Author: Rhys Mendes and Stephen Murchison
⬇️ Downloads: 75

Summary

Central banks have used forward guidance to lower long-term interest rates and stimulate demand when faced with weak demand and policy interest rates at or near the zero lower bound. Forward guidance with a price-level threshold can be more effective than unemployment thresholds in boosting demand and raising inflation expectations, as it has a backward-looking element that depends on past inflation outcomes. However, history-dependent thresholds may be more challenging for central banks to communicate and may be viewed as less credible by the public. The Bank of Canada's model simulation results show that forward guidance with a price-level threshold can theoretically outperform unemployment thresholds in stimulating demand and raising inflation expectations.

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Description

Central banks have used forward guidance to lower long-term interest rates and stimulate demand when faced with weak demand and policy interest rates at or...

Technical Information

  • File Format: PDF
  • File Size: 911 KB
  • Pages: 11
  • Language: EN
  • Author: Rhys Mendes and Stephen Murchison
  • Total Downloads: 75
  • Last Updated: 1 month ago

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