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Macroeconomic Forecasts: NBP Survey Results (Sep 2023).pdf

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Preview of Macroeconomic Forecasts: NBP Survey Results (Sep 2023)
🔗 Source: nbp.pl
📊 Size: 623 KB
📄 Pages: 18 pages
⬇️ Downloads: 158

Summary

NBP's latest macroeconomic survey (AM NBP) from September 2023 indicates that experts predict a high degree of uncertainty regarding Poland's future macroeconomic situation. The survey's probabilistic questions focus on inflation, GDP growth, and NBP's reference rate. Experts' typical scenarios for 2023-2025 are as follows:

- Inflation (CPI): 2023 - 11.5% to 12.3%, 2024 - 4.8% to 8.1%, 2025 - 3.1% to 6.7%
- GDP growth: 2023 - 0% to 0.9%, 2024 - 1.6% to 3.6%, 2025 - 1.9% to 4.2%
- NBP reference rate: 2023 - 6.29% to 6.50%, 2024 - 4.30% to 5.76%, 2025 - 3.23% to 5.25%

Experts also predict stable unemployment (5.1% to 5.2%) and decreasing nominal wage growth (11.7% in 2023 to 6.5% in 2025). They expect the eurozone's GDP growth to be 0.6% in 2023, 1.0% in 2024, and 1.5% in 2025. The average Brent oil price is predicted to be around 84-87 USD per barrel, and the EUR/PLN exchange rate is expected to be 4.55 to 4.63.

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Description

Prognozy makroekonomiczne profesjonalnych prognostów. Wyniki Ankiety Makroekonomicznej NBP, Runda: wrzesień 2023 r. Synteza: prognozy probabilistyczne dla inflacji CPI, tempo wzrostu PKB i stopy referencyjnej NBP w latach 2023-2025.

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  • File Format: PDF
  • File Size: 623 KB
  • Pages: 18
  • Language: PT
  • Total Downloads: 158
  • Last Updated: 2 months ago

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