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Predicting Liberal Democracy: How Well Did We Do?.pdf

Cincotta_2021_NSB_Predicting-the-Rise-and-Demise-of-Liberal-Democracy.pdf
Preview of Predicting Liberal Democracy: How well did we do?
🔗 Source: politicaldemography.org
📊 Size: 730 KB
📄 Pages: 7 pages
⬇️ Downloads: 215

Summary

In 2007, researchers used a statistical model and UN demographic projections to forecast the rise and demise of liberal democracies from 2010 to 2020. The results were surprisingly accurate, but not flawless, as they expected more political liberalization during a decade when democracy was largely in retreat. The forecasts correctly predicted the rise of Tunisia's liberal democracy in North Africa and the loss of liberal democracies in West Africa, including Mali. The age-structural theory of state behavior, which describes the expected social, economic, and political character of countries as they pass through four phases of demographic transition, was used to guide the forecasts. Countries in the demographic window, characterized by a bulge in working-age population and low proportions of young and elderly dependents, were found to be more likely to achieve and maintain liberal democracy.

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In 2007, researchers used a statistical model and UN demographic projections to forecast the rise and demise of liberal democracies from 2010 to 2020.

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  • File Format: PDF
  • File Size: 730 KB
  • Pages: 7
  • Language: EN
  • Total Downloads: 215
  • Last Updated: 1 week ago

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