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U.S. Petroleum Crisis Of 1979: Causes And Consequences.pdf

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Preview of U.S. Petroleum Crisis of 1979: Causes and Consequences
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Summary

- Crisis Cause: Decline in Iranian oil production from 5.8 million barrels a day (mbd) in July 1978 to 445,000 mbd in January 1979.
- Short-term Consequences: Gasoline and diesel fuel shortages in May-July 1979, with lines as long as or longer than in 1974. Potential heating oil shortage in the 1979-80 winter.
- Long-term Consequences: Higher prices for gasoline, heating oil, residual fuel oil, and all petroleum-derived products.
- Analysis Findings: Normal refinery input and production in Q1, but in Q2, output fell short of projected sales, leading to inventory buildup, shortages, and excessive price increases.
- DOE Role: DOE's policies, including inventory buildup requests and crude oil redistribution, contributed to shortages and price increases.
- Supply and Demand in Q1 1979: No unusual inventory buildup; refinery output and product distribution increased modestly; no reported shortages.
- Supply and Demand in Q2 1979: Refinery output fell short of projected sales; inventory buildup led to shortages and price increases exceeding crude oil cost increases.

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1979 U.S. Petroleum Crisis: Caused by Iranian oil production drop, led to gasoline and diesel shortages, and long-term price increases.

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