Recentemente Scritto.pdf

Geoffrey Roberts, an Emeritus Professor of History, analyzes Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, considering various theories and interpretations. The lack of documentary evidence limits the understanding of Putin's motivations, so the analysis relies on his public pronouncements. Putin's rhetoric may have masked his true intentions, but it likely reflects a core of authentic belief. The paper explores Putin's decision-making process, focusing on his public statements, particularly his apocalyptic vision of a future nuclear-armed Ukraine embedded in NATO. Putin believed he had no choice but to wage a preventative war, feeling backed into a corner by the West. The analysis highlights Putin's meeting with Russian diplomats on November 18, 2021, where he emphasized the need for security guarantees, and his subsequent statements reiterating Russian complaints about NATO expansion and Ukraine's failure to implement the Minsk agreements. The author concludes that understanding Putin's calculations may help clarify how the calamity could have been averted and how an even greater catastrophe could be prevented.