Brain Emulations: Economic Implications Of Radical Life Extension.pdf

Robin Hanson, an economist with a technology background, argues that brain emulations will likely have the most significant social impact in the next century. He identifies a pattern of exponential growth modes driving major advancements throughout history, from the universe's expansion to the development of human language, farming, industry, and computers. This trend suggests a forthcoming rapid transition due to radical life extension and enhancement technologies.

Hanson highlights:

- Long-term trends: The universe's expansion, the evolution of animal brains, and human cultural and technological advancements all follow exponential growth patterns.
- Brain size and intelligence: The mass of the largest brains has doubled at an accelerated rate compared to other quantifiable growth modes. Human brain size tripled, enabling significant cultural and population growth.
- Farming and industry: The shift from hunting and gathering to farming, and then to industrial society, occurred at exponential rates, each faster than the previous one.
- Recent growth: Global wealth has been growing exponentially since the industrial revolution, with income doubling approximately every 15 years. This trend suggests a rapid approaching of an even shorter doubling time.

Hanson concludes that these historical patterns indicate a future characterized by substantial economic shifts due to advanced technologies, particularly brain emulations. He emphasizes the need for economists to incorporate specific technological insights into their analyses to better predict and prepare for these changes.