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Hypothesis Generation.pdf

CBMM-Memo-056-v2.pdf
Preview of Hypothesis Generation
🔗 Source: cbmm.mit.edu
📊 Size: 733 KB
📄 Pages: 38 pages
⬇️ Downloads: 130

Summary

Humans' inferences are sometimes close to the Bayesian ideal but often systematically biased, particularly when generating hypotheses rather than evaluating given ones. A proposed model suggests that hypotheses are generated stochastically, forming a Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, which can lead to biases due to limited samples and cognitive constraints. This model recreates various experimental findings, including anchoring and adjustment, subadditivity, and superadditivity, and predicts that these effects can be induced or modified by manipulating hypothesis unpacking and typicality, as well as time pressure and cognitive load.

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Description

Humans' inferences are sometimes close to the Bayesian ideal but often systematically biased, particularly when generating hypotheses rather than evaluating...

Technical Information

  • File Format: PDF
  • File Size: 733 KB
  • Pages: 38
  • Language: EN
  • Total Downloads: 130
  • Last Updated: 3 hours ago

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