Internet Infrastructure At Risk From Sea Level Rise.pdf

We consider the risks to Internet infrastructure in the US due to sea level rise. Our study is based on sea level incursion projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Internet infrastructure deployment data from Internet Atlas. We align the data formats and assess risks in terms of the amount and type of infrastructure that will be under water in different time intervals over the next 100 years. We find that 4,067 miles of fiber conduit will be under water and 1,101 nodes will be surrounded by water in the next 15 years. We further quantify the risks of sea level rise by defining a metric that considers the combination of geographic scope and Internet infrastructure density. We use this metric to examine different regions and find that the New York, Miami, and Seattle metropolitan areas are at highest risk. We also quantify the risks to individual service provider infrastructures and find that CenturyLink, Inteliquent, and AT&T are at highest risk. While it is difficult to project the impact of countermeasures such as sea walls, our results suggest the urgency of developing mitigation strategies and alternative infrastructure deployments. Climate change is causing changes in weather patterns, including increased likelihood of severe storms and rapid rise in sea levels due to melting polar ice caps and thermal expansion of seawater. These phenomena have important implications for the planet and the effects are already being felt in many areas. To understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change, a number of models have been developed to project average sea level rise. The models predict significant incursions on coastal areas that imply displacement of large human populations. In response, some of the threatened areas are already preparing mitigation plans. With significant sea level rise predicted, it is important to assess the threat to communication infrastructure. An indication of the potential impacts are the storm surges of major hurricanes such as Katrina and Sandy that devastated communication systems. While the standard buried fiber conduits are designed to be water and weather resistant, most of the deployed conduits are not designed to be under water permanently. Our study is based on analysis of two data sets: the communication fiber conduit and termination point data in Internet Atlas and the Sea Level Rise Inundation (SLRI) data from NOAA’s Digital Coast project. We fuse the Atlas and SLRI datasets by translating them into a consistent shape format, and then analyze how sea levels will overlap communication infrastructure over successive time periods. The results of our analysis show that climate change-related sea level incursions could have a devastating impact on Internet communication infrastructure even in the relatively short term. In particular, we find that 1,186 miles of long-haul fiber conduit and 2,429 miles of metro fiber conduit will be underwater in the next 15 years. Similarly, we find that 1,101 termination points will be surrounded by sea water in the next 15 years. Given the fact that most fiber conduit is underground, we expect the effects of sea level rise could be felt well before the 15 year horizon. Interestingly, we find that the risks over longer time scales do not increase significantly. To assess the risk of sea level incursions in specific geographic areas, we define the Coastal Infrastructure Risk (CIR) metric that considers the combination of geographic scope and Internet infrastructure density. We use the CIR metric to examine coastal regions in the US with high population density. Our results show that communication infrastructure in New York, Miami, and Seattle, respectively, are at highest risk. We also quantify the impact to individual service providers and find that CenturyLink, Intelliquent (formerly Tinet), and AT&T are at highest risk.