UN Population Divide: Demographic Shift.pdf

The United Nations predicts that the world's population will start to decline by the end of the century. In the West, this decrease is already underway, with 1.5 children per woman, while in the United States, the birth rate is still at 1.8. Only immigration has allowed Europe to maintain a slight population increase over the last decade. If this trend continues, particularly in Italy, the future will be challenging. The UN, the maximum authority in demographics, regularly estimates the world and individual countries' populations by the end of the century. Unlike economic or other types of predictions, demographic trends are the most difficult to change through any program or action. By the end of the century, the world population is expected to be between 10 and 12 billion, with a preference for lower estimates due to the recent decrease in the population growth rate. The world population has grown from 1 billion in the mid-1800s to 7.8 billion today, an explosion that earned the term "Population Bomb" in Paul Ehrlich's 1968 book. However, none of Ehrlich's predictions came true. Instead, life expectancy has increased, and the mortality rate in the first five years of life has decreased by 80% in the last 50 years. The global population is expected to decrease by the end of the century, as the average number of children per woman is projected to fall below 2.1, the replacement rate. Many areas, including the West, will experience this population decline before the end of the century.