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Whats-the-baseline-15Jan21.pdf

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🔗 Source: intellidex.co.za

📊 Size: 292 KB

👤 Author: Peter Attard Montalto

⬇️ Downloads: 150

Summary

South Africa's 2021 recovery will be slower than expected due to Covid waves and a slow vaccine rollout. The country will only reform at a moderate pace, with corruption being slowly addressed but not leading to significant growth. Structural reforms will be slow, and growth is expected to be below 1.5% in the medium term. An IMF program may be required in the next three years. The 2021 growth forecast has been revised down to 3.2% from 4.3%. Key issues in 2021 will include widening inequality, energy challenges, and fiscal policy debates. The macroeconomic outlook is for a slow recovery, with benign inflation and loose monetary policy. The current account surplus is expected to normalize, and the ZAR may strengthen on flows. Key events in 2021 include the ANC NEC Lekgotla, SONA, and Budget, as well as the start of vaccinations and potential land reform votes. Covid waves are expected to continue, with a third wave possible in May and a fourth wave at the end of 2021. Vaccine herd immunity is not expected to be reached until later in 2021 or 2022.

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Description

South Africa's 2021 recovery will be slower than expected due to Covid waves and a slow vaccine rollout.

Technical Information

File Format: PDF
File Size: 292 KB
Pages: 15
Language: EN
Author: Peter Attard Montalto
Total Downloads: 150
Last Updated: 2 days ago

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