Land Banking And Housebuilding In The UK: A Comprehensive Analysis.pdf

Pre-Planning Application (Phase A): 1.2 to 2.1 years (lengthier than previously estimated).

2. Planning Application to Planning Permission (Phase B): 0.5 to 0.8 years (similar to previous estimates).

3. Planning Permission to Start on Site (Phase C): 1.7 years (significantly longer than earlier estimates, reflecting increased pre-commencement conditions and larger site complexities).

4. Under Construction (Build Out) to Completion (Phase D): 2.3 years (up from previous estimates of 1.1-2.3 years, emphasizing the time required for large-scale buildout).

Key Observations:

Growing Pipeline Duration: The overall development pipeline has lengthened, particularly in Phase C and D, due to stricter planning conditions and larger site complexities.
Permissioned Land Bank Needs: A land bank of 5.7 years' worth of output is required for builders to maintain a steady pace of 250,000 completions annually, considering a 4-year pipeline with 20% lapse rate and 5% annual growth.
Shortfall in Planning Permissions: There's a shortfall of around 450,000 planning permissions needed to build at the required rate.
Non-Builders Dominance: 86.6% of outline permissions are held by non-builders, highlighting the need for better engagement with landowners and developers.
Regional Disparities: London faces unique challenges due to a higher proportion of sites owned by non-builders and a larger concentration of large-scale developments requiring longer buildout times.
Housebuilder Strategies: Top builders have smaller land banks (3.3 years) reflecting their fast-asset turnover models, but they possess a more concentrated portfolio of detailed permissions and higher start rates.