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CAHIER_FDD_62.pdf
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📊 Size: 612 KB
📄 Pages: 21 pages
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Explicit investment rules are established for irreversible investment decisions with time-to-build and uncertainty, assuming a price-sensitive demand function with a random intercept. The optimal rule is that committed capacity must not fall below the best predictor of future demand, minus two biases: a discounting bias and a precautionary bias. The discounting bias accounts for investment paid upfront for future use, while the precautionary bias multiplies a risk aversion index by local volatility. The solution is implementable as a competitive equilibrium, and explicit decision rules are calculated for three demand models: arithmetic Brownian, geometric Brownian, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross. The results show that uncertainty has little importance for investment with a long construction horizon, while decision-makers should pay greater attention to volatility for investment with a short construction horizon.

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Explicit investment rules are established for irreversible investment decisions with time-to-build and uncertainty, assuming a price-sensitive demand function...

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  • File Format: PDF
  • File Size: 612 KB
  • Pages: 21
  • Language: EN
  • Total Downloads: 101
  • Last Updated: 1 month ago

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