China's Military Reforms And Nuclear Strategy: Implications And Recommendations.pdf

Context:
David Santoro discusses China's military reforms announced by President Xi Jinping, aiming to build a "world-class" military by 2049. He provides insights into the implications of these reforms on China's nuclear strategy and weapon program, based on historical developments and track-2/track-1.5 dialogues with Chinese national security experts.

Key Arguments:

1. Consistency in Nuclear Strategy: Since its first nuclear test in 1964, China’s nuclear strategy has remained consistent as a self-defense policy characterized by:
- A "no-first-use" (NFU) policy.
- Development of a small nuclear force.

2. Recent Dynamics: Despite historical consistency, recent modernization, diversification, and expansion of the nuclear arsenal have raised concerns about potential policy shifts in Beijing.

3. Implications of Military Reforms: It remains to be seen if the reforms will lead to "nuclear continuity" or "nuclear change." However, some degree of change is likely.

Recommendations for U.S. Government:

1. Maintain Effective Deterrence: Invest in measures to maintain effective deterrence against China and extended-deterrence commitments to allies.

2. Initiate Strategic Nuclear Dialogue: Create conditions for U.S.-China strategic nuclear dialogue to begin immediately.

3. Pursue Arms Control: Lead on arms control efforts, starting with the extension of the 2010 U.S.-Russia New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START).

4. Prioritize Crisis Management: Emphasize crisis management in response to potential escalations.

Unique Features of China’s Nuclear Strategy:

1. Centralized Control: The top leadership of the CCP, specifically Chairman Xi Jinping, controls nuclear strategy directly through the Central Military Commission (CMC).

2. Limited Utility View: Chinese leaders believe nuclear weapons only serve to prevent coercion and deter attack, not for conventional warfighting or actual use.

3. Self-Defense Focus: Beijing maintains a self-defense nuclear strategy, focusing on developing a small nuclear force capable of conducting a nuclear counterstrike.