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Election Poll Evaluation.pdf

AAPOR-2016-Election-Polling-Report.pdf
Preview of Election Poll Evaluation
🔗 Source: japor.or.jp
📊 Size: 1.03 MB
📄 Pages: 104 pages
⬇️ Downloads: 165

Summary

National polls were generally accurate in the 2016 US presidential election, correctly indicating a 3-point lead for Clinton, who won the popular vote by 2 points. However, state-level polls underestimated Trump's support, particularly in the Upper Midwest, where he won key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Factors contributing to this underestimation include late changes in vote preference, over-representation of college graduates in polls, and some Trump voters not revealing their support until after the election. Other potential factors, such as changes in turnout and ballot order effects, may have also played a role, but the evidence is less compelling.

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Description

National polls were generally accurate in the 2016 US presidential election, correctly indicating a 3-point lead for Clinton, who won the popular vote by 2...

Technical Information

  • File Format: PDF
  • File Size: 1.03 MB
  • Pages: 104
  • Language: EN
  • Total Downloads: 165
  • Last Updated: 1 week ago

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