Subansiri River Flow.pdf

The Subansiri River, a major tributary of the Brahmaputra, has significant water resources and hydropower potential. The Subansiri Lower Hydro Electric Project (SLHEP), a 2000MW hydroelectric project, is under construction in India. Climate change is expected to impact the project's performance due to changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and other climatic variables.

A study used a statistical downscaling technique to determine future rainfall over the Subansiri basin, and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with a Non-linear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) network to predict future runoff. The results showed a decreasing trend in runoff for future time periods, which will impact the project's power potential.

The power potential of the project is expected to decrease by 19.72%, 23.98%, 28.99%, and 29.06% for the time frames 2020-39, 2040-59, 2060-79, and 2080-99, respectively, compared to the historical period of 1990-2014. The study highlights the importance of considering climate change impacts on hydroelectric projects and the need for accurate estimation of runoff for reservoir operation and watershed management.

Key findings include:

Decreasing trend in runoff for future time periods
Decrease in power potential by 19.72% to 29.06% for different time frames
Importance of considering climate change impacts on hydroelectric projects
Need for accurate estimation of runoff for reservoir operation and watershed management.