EGU2010-1583.pdf

Changes in circulation type frequencies for present and future climates were analyzed for the Northwestern Iberian Peninsula. Circulation types, linked to surface climatic variables like precipitation and temperature, were used to validate coupled general circulation models and analyze changes in circulation patterns under future climate change scenarios. The study used an automated version of the Lamb weather types and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948-2008, and linear trends were analyzed for the entire period and two sub-periods. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to analyze trend significance. Future climate change scenarios were also studied using output runs from several GCMs, including IPSL-CM4, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, and CCSM3, with three emission scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) and a 20th century control simulation.